With Tesla leading the way in the EV evolution and its valuation approaching an all time high. Let's compare it's closest competitors in the EV market.
Tesla is currently worth the highest at $278.1 Billion while Nio is at a 2nd place at $12.5 Billion both targeting the consumer EV market. Our other comparisons, Nikola and Hyliion both targeting the trucking market are worth $1.6 Billion and $442 Million respectively while Workhorse targeting the last mile delivery vehicle market is worth $1.2 Billion. -Valuations last updated on 8/3/20
According to an independent study of the total addressable electric vehicle market, the estimated Total Addressable Market or TAM is $147B or 3.2 million units. Given that Tesla delivered 90,891 units last quarter, that would give Tesla a 2.78% market share while Nio comes at .32% market share with 10,331 units delivered.
The TAM of the trucking market size is approximately 450K units or $99B. Nikola has not yet delivered any units until 2021 with a 0% market share while Hyliion has 20 units delivered.
By analyzing the market share of each of these companies and reflecting each with the current stock price of each company, we can approximate what the share price should be if each company were to own say 2%, 10% or 30% market share of the entire market.
Looking 10 years from now of what the projected TAM will be and using some assumptions based off the investors decks. The average Tesla vehicle would cost around $45K while an average Nikola truck would cost $220K. The overall TAM of the EV market would be around $1.21 Trillion for consumer vehicles and $1.16 Trillion for the trucking industry by 2030.
Source:
TAM of EV market | TAM of Trucking market and Nikola Units Delivered | TAM of Last Mile delivery market and Workhorse Units Delivered | Tesla Units Delivered | Nio Units Delivered | Hyliion Units Delivered
Tesla's current $1,500 share price is a future projection that they will need to own 23% of the total EV market by 2030. They currently own 2.78% of the market in 2020.
Tesla
One of the earliest electric vehicle motor company, Tesla was founded in 2003 and has since grown into the world's best selling electric vehicle in the market.
Pros:
Secured China market
Existing factories built in China, Germany and the U.S.
Propitiatory autonomous self driving software
Has SpaceX and SolarCity financials for support
Cons:
Battery range is currently at max 350 miles
Charging time of batteries takes several hours
Risk:
Existing carmakers like Toyota has a higher capacity to produce more cars
Current stock pricing reflects a market share of 23% in the next 10 years
Nio's currently owns 0.32% of the market in 2020. The current stock price of $12.20 means they should own 8.51%.
Nio
Nio was founded in 2014 in China and has strong backing by major Chinese investors.
Pros:
Secured China market
Cons:
Battery range is currently at max 350 miles
Charging time of batteries takes several hours
Risk:
Existing carmakers like Toyota has a higher capacity to produce more cars
Currently not profitable
While Nikola currently has no vehicle deliveries in 2020. If they are able to capture just 2% of the overall trucking market in 10 years time, they would be worth $434 per share.
Nikola
Nikola was founded in 2014 and its main focus is on the trucking industry in overcoming the weakness of the battery power's short-range. It's a main selling point is in its use of hybrid hydrogen fuel cell plus electric power on its trucks.
Pros:
Developing a Hydrogen and Battery hybrid system with 750-mile range
Going into the energy infrastructure sector by selling fuel cells
Building a consumer product pickup truck to compete with Ford F150
Cons:
Does not currently have any units sold until 2021
Risk:
The high cost of building hydrogen fuel cell infrastructure
Reports earnings on August 4, 2020
Hyliion a lot like Nikola, hasn't shown any significant units delivered however the upside is huge if they are also able to capture a conservative 2% market share in 10 years time, they would be worth $995 per share.
Hyliion
Hyliion was founded in 2015 and its main focus is on initially adopting an electric hybrid plugin known as the Hypertruck Electric Range Extender or ERX that works with existing diesel engines and later on focusing on a truck that works on a hybrid hydrogen system similar to Nikola.
Pros:
Has a Diesel and Battery hybrid system that works with the majority of existing trucks
Cons:
With government initiatives moving more into eliminating Diesel altogether, the existing hybrid system will become obsolete in the long run
Hypertruck that works on hydrogen system won't be ready till 2022
Risk:
Hydrogen trucks are unproven and is behind in R&D compared to Nikola
Battery trucks are cheaper for shorter hauls
Workhorse's current market share is 0.11%, they need to achieve a market share of 6.63% to justify it's current stock price.
Workhorse
Workhorse was founded in 2007 and its main focus is on last-mile delivery vehicles with less than 100 mile range such as the ones from mail and package delivery vehicles.
Pros:
Fully electric solution with 100-mile range
A proven business model with existing customers
Cons:
It's a smaller market than the consumer and trucking industry